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Developments in the Global Air Freight Sector

2023-12-29 15:14:24
Developments in the Global Air Freight Sector

Market Stability

The market is maintaining relative stability overall, with air cargo demand leveling off from previous declines and even showing growth in recent months (a 1.5% increase year-on-year in August). The growth in capacity continues to surpass demand, with international bellyhold capacity nearing 2019 levels. Although industry freight rates are on a downward trend, the rate of decline is slowing and is essentially the same as in May, still exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Shipping costs in August this year were about 35% higher than the same period in 2019.

Manufacturing Output, Inflation, and Regional Growth

In August, there was a slight increase in manufacturing output and the number of new export orders, although still below neutral, indicating a slowdown in the decline of global goods trade. U.S. inflation increased to 3.7% in August, marking two consecutive months of gains after 13 months of consecutive declines. Demand for all major trade routes increased in August, with a slight increase in demand from North America to Europe/Asia-Pacific compared to the previous month, and an 8.8% year-on-year increase in demand from Europe to Asia.

Growth in E-commerce Export Volume

The growth in air exports of low-value e-commerce products (with the exception of the Asia-Pacific region) has stimulated overall demand in the air cargo market. Large-scale exports from major exporters and the introduction of high-tech products have led to a surge in export demand from China, Vietnam, and other Asia-Pacific countries, achieving positive year-on-year demand growth in the fourth quarter.


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