Market Stability

The market is maintaining relative stability overall, with air cargo demand leveling off from previous declines and even showing growth in recent months (a 1.5% increase year-on-year in August). The growth in capacity continues to surpass demand, with international bellyhold capacity nearing 2019 levels. Although industry freight rates are on a downward trend, the rate of decline is slowing and is essentially the same as in May, still exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Shipping costs in August this year were about 35% higher than the same period in 2019.

Manufacturing Output, Inflation, and Regional Growth

In August, there was a slight increase in manufacturing output and the number of new export orders, although still below neutral, indicating a slowdown in the decline of global goods trade. U.S. inflation increased to 3.7% in August, marking two consecutive months of gains after 13 months of consecutive declines. Demand for all major trade routes increased in August, with a slight increase in demand from North America to Europe/Asia-Pacific compared to the previous month, and an 8.8% year-on-year increase in demand from Europe to Asia.

Growth in E-commerce Export Volume

The growth in air exports of low-value e-commerce products (with the exception of the Asia-Pacific region) has stimulated overall demand in the air cargo market. Large-scale exports from major exporters and the introduction of high-tech products have led to a surge in export demand from China, Vietnam, and other Asia-Pacific countries, achieving positive year-on-year demand growth in the fourth quarter.